The metallurgical coal markets will walk a narrow tightrope in 2023 as demand support from emerging markets opposes demand destruction from a global recession. Fading war premiums, China returning to Australia as the country shifts away from zero-COVID policy, and global recessionary clouds will govern the market’s sentiments through 2023. In this insight we assess the outlook for metallurgical coal markets this year, focusing on five topics: 1. Emerging trade patterns – Are trade flows done adjusting? 2. Economic uncertainty – Will some regions buck the slowdown? 3. Sunshine in sight for Australia – Will supply outpace demand growth in 2023? 4. Crossover coal – Traditional sales from Australia will continue, don’t expect new spot sales from the US 5. Steel goes on diet – How will it impact metallurgical coal? Do we expect more divestments?