Commodity Market Report

Global metallurgical coal market short-term outlook July 2022

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29 July 2022

Global metallurgical coal market short-term outlook July 2022

Report summary

The Queensland PLV benchmark continued dropping drastically by US$100/t in July. Met coal demand remained constrained by the sluggish steel demand and seasonal slowdowns of the blast furnaces in Asian and European countries. Even the Australian supply disruption, caused by heavy precipitation, could not ease the sharp downward trajectory. We believe the unexpected coking coal price discount to premium thermal coal prices will persist due to the upcoming Russian energy ban in the EU and a delayed coking coal demand recovery globally. We altered our metallurgical coal price forecasts downward, owing to the latest macro economy outlooks indicating uncertainties in steel demand in Q4. The risk of inflation and possible global recession led to our latest view that the Queensland PLV benchmark will be below US$250/t in winter.

Table of contents

  • The Queensland PLV benchmark experiences a 30% price decrease, despite Australian supply problems
  • Chinese seaborne met coal demand retreated significantly with a weak steel market outlook
  • Outlook: prices to push lower in August before recovery in September
  • Outlook: bleak near-term Chinese outlook keeps seaborne import coal demand low
    • Coke: the market extended its losses amid plummeting demand
  • India: Monsoons deterred coking coal demand in July
  • Japan: metallurgical coal demand remained steady in H1 despite steelmakers’ output curtailment
  • EU: Q3 blast furnace idlings put a chill on metallurgical coal demand
  • Australia: no significant supply push from the majors as rainy weather persists
  • United States: rail performance is faltering and may only get worse
    • Operations
  • China: coke exports to drop in H2
  • China: coking coal imports increased in H1, with Russian leading the way
  • India
  • Australia

Tables and charts

This report includes 14 images and tables including:

  • Queensland PLV FOB price, % change m-o-m
  • CFR China price, % change m-o-m
  • Key prices - history & quarterly forecasts (US$/t nominal)
  • BMA quarterly production (Mt)
  • Australia met coal production by company (Mt)
  • Average monthly rainfall across Qld met coal mines
  • Average daily rainfall across Qld met coal mines
  • Chinese monthly metallurgical coke exports by destination (Mt)
  • Indian metallurgical coal imports
  • Indian domestic coke prices 2022
  • Queensland ports: metallurgical coal exports (Mt per month)
  • China domestic coke and pig iron prices
  • China daily hot metal production
  • Russian eastbound coal railings and quotas

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Metallurgical Coal Markets Short Term Outlook Data July 2022.xlsx

    XLSX 484.01 KB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal market short-term outlook July 2022

    PDF 1.20 MB