Global thermal short-term outlook March 2024

March 2024 say markets defy underlying demand fundamentals with prices swinging up. For the most part, external factors and sentiment are largely responsible as a catastrophic bridge collapse at a major US port, sanctions on Russian coal producers and a puzzling Glencore/Japanese end-user deal fuelled high CV coal prices. High coal stockpiles combined with high natural gas inventories/low prices, mild northern hemisphere winters and renewable penetrations continue to weigh heavy on the global thermal coal market. While 2024 domestic coal demand is murky, exports to China are on pace to break another record with a favourable domestic/import arbitrage remaining open. Indian coal imports will be robust this year but strong domestic production is definitely tempering the market.