Global thermal short-term outlook September 2022 Report

Commodity Market Report 30 September 2022

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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Report summary

This could be the calm before the storm in global thermal coal markets, as northern hemisphere demand remains subdued over the shoulder season but trouble brews on the horizon. Winter demand will test power markets in Europe, northern Asia, and the United States. The La Niña weather pattern projected in the coming months in the southern hemisphere threatens to topple an already precarious supply balance, as major coal exporting regions are expected to have above average rainfall. Australian production, which is already struggling to recover from recent flooding events, may face the largest challenge under these conditions.

China – Russia export to China is increasing
India – imports to remain strong as the country enters the season of festivities
Europe – revived coal units and healthy gas storage provide hope for energy security
Australia – downgraded (again) on La Nina confirmation
Indonesia – record production achieved for four months in a row
Russia – EU restrictions partially eased
South Africa – Korea replaces India as largest destination
High/low scenarios

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

Australia thermal coal exports
Australia thermal coal exports history
Indonesia coal production and exports (Mt)

SA monthly coal exports by country/region
TFR average coal railed to the RBCT
Key prices - history and forecast
Low and high cases for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 5%, 33%, 66% and 95%