Commodity Market Report
Global thermal short-term outlook September 2022
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
This could be the calm before the storm in global thermal coal markets, as northern hemisphere demand remains subdued over the shoulder season but trouble brews on the horizon. Winter demand will test power markets in Europe, northern Asia, and the United States. The La Niña weather pattern projected in the coming months in the southern hemisphere threatens to topple an already precarious supply balance, as major coal exporting regions are expected to have above average rainfall. Australian production, which is already struggling to recover from recent flooding events, may face the largest challenge under these conditions.
Table of contents
- China – Russia export to China is increasing
- India – imports to remain strong as the country enters the season of festivities
- Europe – revived coal units and healthy gas storage provide hope for energy security
- Australia – downgraded (again) on La Nina confirmation
- Indonesia – record production achieved for four months in a row
- Russia – EU restrictions partially eased
- South Africa – Korea replaces India as largest destination
- High/low scenarios
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Australia thermal coal exportsAustralia thermal coal exports historyIndonesia coal production and exports (Mt)
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SA monthly coal exports by country/regionTFR average coal railed to the RBCTKey prices - history and forecastLow and high cases for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 5%, 33%, 66% and 95%
What's included
This report contains:
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