Commodity Market Report

Global thermal short-term outlook September 2022

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30 September 2022

Global thermal short-term outlook September 2022

Report summary

This could be the calm before the storm in global thermal coal markets, as northern hemisphere demand remains subdued over the shoulder season but trouble brews on the horizon. Winter demand will test power markets in Europe, northern Asia, and the United States. The La Niña weather pattern projected in the coming months in the southern hemisphere threatens to topple an already precarious supply balance, as major coal exporting regions are expected to have above average rainfall. Australian production, which is already struggling to recover from recent flooding events, may face the largest challenge under these conditions.

Table of contents

  • China – Russia export to China is increasing
  • India – imports to remain strong as the country enters the season of festivities
  • Europe – revived coal units and healthy gas storage provide hope for energy security
  • Australia – downgraded (again) on La Nina confirmation
  • Indonesia – record production achieved for four months in a row
  • Russia – EU restrictions partially eased
  • South Africa – Korea replaces India as largest destination
  • High/low scenarios

Tables and charts

This report includes 7 images and tables including:

  • Australia thermal coal exports
  • Australia thermal coal exports history
  • Indonesia coal production and exports (Mt)
  • SA monthly coal exports by country/region
  • TFR average coal railed to the RBCT
  • Key prices - history and forecast
  • Low and high cases for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 5%, 33%, 66% and 95%

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    global-thermal-short-term-outlook-september-2022-data.xlsx

    XLSX 575.90 KB

  • Document

    Global thermal short-term outlook September 2022

    PDF 1.03 MB