Commodity Market Report

India coal short-term outlook December 2018: safe haven for seaborne coal?

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07 January 2019

India coal short-term outlook December 2018: safe haven for seaborne coal?

Report summary

Growth in domestic coal production slowed down in Q4 2018 resulting in an increased reliance on imports. With several tenders already floated out, some power plants will continue to receive imported coal for blend during Q1 2019, sustaining coal imports even during the peak production period for Coal India. Lack of domestic supply continues to drive imports from the non-power sector, but with lowering petroleum coke prices and expected improvement in domestic production, some of the thermal coal imports may see substitution. Sustained growth in industrial production has improved domestic steel demand as tariffs make imported steel costlier. We discuss how does all this impact the coal imports in Q1 2019 and over the next two years in our report.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Spot market remains tight as demand grows rapidly
    • Alternative fuels complementing each other to meet strong demand growth
    • Steel and hot metal output still on upward trend, but trade wars starting to sting
    • Reliance on imports persist

Tables and charts

This report includes 13 images and tables including:

  • Executive summary: Image 1
  • Power generation mix August-September 2018
  • Energy shortage and spot market electricity prices
  • CIL performance in spot market, Mt and %
  • CFR India prices of imported coal, US$/t
  • Key thermal prices – history/forecast, nominal US$/t
  • Key met prices – history/forecast, nominal US$/t
  • Monthly coal-fired generation, TWh
  • Monthly hot metal and steel production, Mt
  • Domestic coal stocks at power plants, Mt
  • Imported coal stocks at power plants, Mt
  • CIL raw coal production, Mt
  • CIL coal despatches, Mt

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    cms india short term outlook december 2018.xls

    XLS 6.68 MB

  • Document

    India coal short-term outlook December 2018: safe haven for seaborne coal?

    PDF 957.39 KB

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