India coal short-term outlook October 2024 Report

Commodity Market Report 09 October 2024

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Report summary

India’s electricity demand decreased in Q3 2024 during the monsoon after soaring in Q2 2024 due to summer demand. The daily peak power demand dropped to 144 GW in August, down from 156 GW in May, amid heavy rainfall across India eased the temperature. India’s domestic coal production decreased by 1% y-o-y in the first two months of Q3 2024. Rainfall in Eastern India disrupted the coal production. India’s hot metal production showed an increasing trend during Q3 2024. It increased by 3% month-on-month in July, followed by a slowdown in production growth to 1% month-on-month in August. Domestic steel demand continued to remain muted due to a slowdown in the construction sector amid the monsoon season and rising steel imports. We expect steel demand to gain momentum from the end of Q4 2024. Demand should receive upside support from the end of Q4 2025/Q1 2025 with the ramp-up in government infrastructure spending.