Metallurgical coal market short-term outlook July 2021 Report

Commodity Market Report 31 July 2021

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Report summary

Steel raw materials are increasingly under pressure because of post-pandemic stimulus, and consumer demand. Miners both inside and outside China are struggling to cope. A combination of covid outbreaks, weather disruptions and industrial disputes, have left Chinese markets short. Meanwhile, a shortage of BHP cargoes, and stuttering supply elsewhere in Australia, has been insufficient to meet the needs of international steel makers, some of whom are struggling to fill the gap left by US, Canadian and Russian coals chasing stratospheric prices in China. The market is under duress, but as China takes steps to curb steel production, and supply recovers through Q3 and Q4, there will be a rebalancing. But it is difficult to predict how quickly that will happen with further risks of covid outbreaks and climate-related disruptions.

Chinese supply constraints playing a key role
Supply outside China is also struggling
Outlook: Conditions to ease but when?
- China supply crunch to linger through August
- International supply also has room to grow
- Demand at risk from intervention
- China: steel demand topping out, but supply structurally tight
- Crude steel production looks set for a slower H2 as well
- Indian steel production gaining momentum, but domestic demand remains sluggish
- European flash floods a temporary disruption
- Australia: Queensland met coal throughput climbs to a financial year-end high
- Australia: BHP ends the financial year on a high note, while others fall short
- Mozambique: Early positive signs after Moatize’s upgrade not enough to change our forecast
- Supply elsewhere is under some duress

Tables and charts

This report includes 9 images and tables including:

Key prices - history & quarterly forecasts (US$/t nominal)
India's coke exports and imports
Global and Chinese crude steel production (Mt)

Global and Chinese blast furnace hot metal production (Mt)
Crude steel production - ex-China producers (Mt)
Blast furnace hot metal production - ex-China producers (Mt)
Queensland ports: Metallurgical coal exports (Mt per month)
BMA quarterly production (Mt)
Australia met coal production by company (Mt)

What's included

This report contains:

Metallurgical coal markets - short-term outlook data - July 2021.xlsx

XLSX 631.28 KB
Metallurgical coal market short-term outlook July 2021

PDF 1.04 MB