Commodity Market Report
North America coal short-term outlook December 2019: The market looks towards next year
Report summary
2019 will end with coal production declining 137 Mst – 18% – from 2018 and the lowest total since 1974. US coal production peaked in 2008 at 1.17 Bst and will end 2019 at an estimated 619 Mst – a 52% decline. These sombre facts have had their affect on the market. Weak demand has driven the closure and idling of mines and spot market activity has all but stopped. Spot prices have hit multiyear lows. However, that is not to say that this is what producers can expect in 2020. Contract prices, the vehicle under which the vast majority of US coal is sold, have been settled at notably higher levels so far. We expect ILB and NAPP demand to hold up relatively well in 2020 with the exception of ILB exports. Domestic contract pricing should also hold up reasonably well for these basins in 2020.
Table of contents
- International Prices
Tables and charts
This report includes 12 images and tables including:
- Coal basin source of deliveries to coal units retired in 2019
- Coal basin source of deliveries to coal units retiring in 2020
- 2020 Thermal coal demand delta relative to 2019 (Mst)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Three-month Outlook
- Henry Hub Price forecast (US$/mmbtu)
- NAPP- Employees and productivity (stpeh)
- NAPP – Hours per employee and production
- ILB- Employees and productivity (stpeh)
- ILB – Hours per employee and production
- PRB - Employees and productivity (stpeh)
- PRB – Hours per employee and production
- EGU Stockpiles by Census Region (Mst)
What's included
This report contains:
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