North America coal short-term outlook July 2020: Hot weather improves coal burn, but prices remain frozen

July 2020 is going to go down in the record books as one of the hottest ever in the continental US. With that has come high generation levels an increased coal burn. Despite gas prices being US$0.8 /mmbtu lower than last July, coal burn will be only 10% lower than a year ago this month. With that, coal deliveries have finally turned the corner and begun to increase, although still lagging consumption. Stocks are pegged to go down about 18.5 Mst this summer. Notwithstanding the heat, prices remain frozen and are not expected to increase appreciably until gas prices move up in the fourth quarter, 2020.