Thermal coal in a carbon-conscious world: the IEA 450 Scenario

Table of contents

• Executive summary
• Scenario definition
  • IEA New Policies Scenario (NPS)
  • IEA 450 Scenario
  • Wood Mackenzie base case
• What assumptions differentiate the IEA scenarios from our base case?
  • Macroeconomic growth
• Demand: the IEA 450 Scenario sees thermal trade fall to 527 Mt in 2035
  • Summary
  • Regional explanation
  • Implications for the seaborne trade: coal quality is all important
• Supply: the IEA 450 Scenario sees Indonesian exports fall below 200 Mtpa by 2035
  • Summary
  • Regional explanation
• Prices: US$50/t FOB Newcastle could be the new norm
• Conclusion

Tables and charts

This report includes 9 images and tables including:

• Key assumptions and drivers in scenarios
• FOB Newcastle price comparison, US$/t (real 2016)
• Global CO2 emissions (Mt)

What's included

This report contains:

• Thermal coal in a carbon-conscious world.xls

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• Thermal coal in a carbon-conscious world: the IEA 450 Scenario

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• Thermal coal in a carbon-conscious world: the IEA 450 Scenario

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