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Commodity Market Report

Thermal coal markets short-term outlook May 2021

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31 May 2021

Thermal coal markets short-term outlook May 2021

Report summary

May has proven to be one of the more volatile months this year as prices rose strongly to end the month. An already tight market saw supply disruptions in Indonesia and Colombia while coal demand rose quickly in places such as Taiwan and Europe. The continued lack of high energy supply, which is down around 7 Mt H1 2021 vs H1 2020, is making itself known as numerous countries compete for scarce spot coal.

Table of contents

  • General discussion and base case
  • High/low scenarios
  • China – high domestic prices but no relaxation of quotas yet
  • India – demand loses momentum amongst the second wave
  • Taiwan – continued power shortfalls bring upside for coal
  • EMEARC – coal sees a resurgence as gas and renewables stumble
  • Australia – struggling to regain momentum as prices surge
  • Indonesia – May production heavily impacted by rain
  • Colombia – Cerrejon suspends operations due to blockades

Tables and charts

This report includes 5 images and tables including:

  • Key prices - history and forecast (nominal, US$/t)
  • Low and high cases for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 5%, 33%, 66% and 95% (US$/t)
  • Australia thermal coal exports
  • Australia thermal coal trade flow change YTD comparison (Jan-Mar)
  • Indonesia production and exports

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Thermal coal markets - short-term outlook data - May 2021.xlsx

    XLSX 478.77 KB

  • Document

    Thermal coal markets short-term outlook May 2021

    PDF 895.12 KB