Insight

South Africa's 2018 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP): illusion or reality?

11 September 2018

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11 September 2018

South Africa's 2018 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP): illusion or reality?

Report summary

In late August, South Africa's Cabinet approved a draft of the country's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). The IRP is intended to be a guide to long-term energy strategy and investment priorities through 2030. The previous IRP was published in 2010. Since then, renewable costs have declined dramatically and South Africa's political leadership has changed – presenting the current government and investors with new choices as the energy transition takes hold. But, what is feasible in the context of South Africa's energy market?

Coal: methodologies and start up assumptions drive the differences
Hydro: Wood Mackenzie does not include the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) hydro project in our outlook
Gas: IRP assumptions for gas market development plans are optimistic
Wind and solar: no major departure from previous IRP
Nuclear: no differences on the role of nuclear