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China gas markets long-term outlook H1 2017

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12 July 2017

China gas markets long-term outlook H1 2017

Report summary

China's gas demand has gained firmer growth prospects. Admittedly, promoting gas becomes more challenging amid severe overcapacity in the coal and power markets, but latest energy policies confirm China's determination to divert away from coal. Gas is seen by policymakers as a realistic choice and an integral part in a cleaner energy structure. In this update, we've further revised up demand in 2020-2030 compared with our H2 2016 outlook, based on expected policy support to gas and improved fuel economics. By 2035, China gas demand will be treble the 2016 levels.

Table of contents

    • Introduction
    • China's gas reform is achieving some of its goals, although more needs to be done
    • Gas demand surging as government promotes coal-to-gas switching
    • and supported by improved fuel economics
    • NOCs are still over-contracted but are adapting their strategies
    • Gas-on-gas competition dims outlook for piped gas imports
    • Domestic production outlook is upgraded
    • Challenges remain for unconventional gas development
    • Key data tables
  • Economic outlook
    • Gas sector policy and regulation
      • 13th Five-Year Plan on Energy
      • 13th Five-Year Plan on Natural Gas
      • Oil and Gas Sector Reform Plan Summary
      • Opinions on Accelerating the Use of Natural Gas
    • Regulatory structure
    • Gas demand overview
    • Industrial sector (including feedstock)
    • Residential and commercial sector (including space heating)
    • Transport sector
      • Power sector
    • Appendix - Provincial demand data
    • Domestic conventional supply
    • Unconventional supply: tight gas
    • Unconventional supply: CBM and CMM
    • Unconventional supply: SNG and coal-to-gas
    • Unconventional supply: shale gas
    • Appendix: Domestic supply
    • Supply cost stack
    • Gas imports - pipeline
      • Central Asia imports
        • Turkmenistan
        • Uzbekistan
        • Kazakhstan
      • Myanmar Imports
      • Russian imports
        • Russia East
        • Russia West
        • Assumed import pipeline contract pricing
        • Gas Imports - LNG
        • LNG import contracts
    • Domestic gas infrastructure
      • Existing
      • Under development and proposed
    • Gas import infrastructure - LNG
    • CNOOC
    • PetroChina
    • Sinopec
    • Private entrants
    • Contracted supply
    • LNG supply-demand balance
    • Introduction
    • China's existing gas pricing structure
      • Gas pricing structure
    • Power pricing
    • Non-power pricing
      • Industry and commercial
      • Residential
        • Transport
        • Appendix - Provincial end user prices
  • Risks and uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 39 images and tables including:

  • Economic Indicators
  • China Supply and Demand Balance
  • China gas demand by province
  • China gas market balance
  • China power market balance
  • China energy policy making and regulatory structure
  • Total China gas demand by sector
  • China demand by province
  • Industrial gas demand by province
  • Fertilisers and Chemicals gas demand by province
  • Residential/commercial gas demand by province
  • Demand: Image 6
  • Winter heating gas demand by province
  • Demand: Image 8
  • Demand: Image 9
  • China supply outlook by region/basin
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Supply: Image 3
  • Supply growth by region/basin
  • China supply cost by project – full life breakeven vs import contract price
  • China supply cost by basin - remaining breakeven plus tariff assumption to Shanghai
  • China regasification capacity by status
  • China regasification capacity by company
  • CNOOC LNG capacity by terminal
  • PetroChina LNG capacity by terminal
  • Sinopec LNG capacity by terminal
  • Non-NOC LNG capacity by terminal
  • China LNG terminal map
  • LNG Demand (Contracted vs Uncontracted)
  • Summary of 13th Five Year Plan energy targets
  • Additional key policy events in 2016-2017
  • Key domestic gas infrastructure - existing
  • Trans-Asia gas pipeline route map
  • Russian export pipeline routes map
  • Assumed Turkmenistan contract price into Shanghai (2017 terms)
  • China contracted LNG by Project & Buyer (SPAs and HOAs)
  • Contracted LNG by import company
  • Contracted LNG by exporting country
  • End-user prices vs. competing fuel

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    China Gas Data H1.xls

    XLS 1.87 MB

  • Document

    China gas markets long-term outlook H1 2017

    PDF 2.27 MB

  • Document

    China gas markets long-term outlook H1 2017

    ZIP 2.66 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 119.06 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 57.41 KB

  • Document

    Policy and regulation

    PDF 231.31 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 146.94 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 146.74 KB

  • Document

    Costs

    PDF 86.29 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 1.43 MB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 450.60 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 92.65 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 96.10 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 81.13 KB

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