Europe gas demand long-term outlook H2 2018

Gas demand in Europe in 2018 has stalled for the first time since 2013-14. The return to growth in 2015 was driven by a return to normal weather conditions, whilst continued growth in 2016 and 2017 was reinforced by hydro and nuclear shortfalls in the power sector. 2018 reversed that; hydro was replenished and nuclear output improved. Overall gas demand dropped in 2018 due to lower demand in the residential sector. Longer-term, gas-fired generation will be supported by lower coal and nuclear output – enough to offset the growth in renewables. Policy decisions are accelerating the phase-out of coal and nuclear capacity. The plight of coal generators is challenged by higher fuel costs and higher carbon prices, while cost overruns and delays compound our lower nuclear outlook. Conversely, falling costs and sustained policy support strengthen the outlook for renewables. Gas demand across the non-power sectors remains stable.