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Global gas markets long-term outlook H2 2018: Base Case

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11 February 2019

Global gas markets long-term outlook H2 2018: Base Case

Report summary

Our global gas and LNG outlook continues to strengthen. Prospects for Asian LNG demand growth have improved again, while at the same time Europe will need more imports to satisfy demand. However in 2019 and 2020 the global LNG market is still expected to struggle to absorb the huge increase in LNG supply and as a result prices will soften. But by 2023 as the first wave of US LNG supply plateaus and LNG demand continues to increase, the market will tighten again, a year earlier than previously anticipated. Nevertheless, in the early 2020s we still expect Asian LNG demand growth to slow. And as LNG developers are gearing up to take FIDs on more than 100 mmtpa of new capacity, launching a new wave of supply, we think more supply will be developed than the market will require by 2025. Are we going to see another global LNG oversupply? The Global Gas Service Base Case report provides an overview of our H2 2018 outlook and price fundamentals.

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 24 images and tables including:

  • European prices, Henry Hub and US LNG cash costs
  • Global price differentials
  • Shipping costs
  • Global LNG supply-demand (un)balance
  • Global LNG supply and demand delivered to Japan (2030)
  • Oil price forecast (Brent crude)
  • Pacific and Middle East LNG demand by market
  • Pacific uncontracted demand by market
  • Pacific LNG contestable demand & competing available supply
  • Pacific LNG demand and supply
  • Pacific LNG flows by source
  • Global LNG availability and Pacific/ME market
  • Net LNG available to Atlantic
  • Europe supply-demand gap - Contracted volumes
  • Europe supply-demand gap - Uncontracted volumes
  • Russia pipe vs LNG imports to Europe
  • Europe import dependence
  • Europe supply-demand balance
  • North America LNG imports
  • South America LNG imports
  • US Lower 48 exports by destination
  • Canada LNG exports
  • Coal price forecast
  • Carbon (EUA) price forecast

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global gas markets long-term outlook H2 2018: Base Case

    ZIP 1.12 MB

  • Document

    Global Gas Service - Base Case - H2 2018.xls

    XLS 2.72 MB

  • Document

    Global Gas Service_Base Case H2 2018_Comparison to Prev Outlook.xlsx

    XLSX 157.00 KB

  • Document

    global_gas_markets_-_macro_assumptions_-_h2_2018.xls

    XLS 3.46 MB

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