Commodity Market Report

North America gas short-term outlook: Winter stock-out risk eroding?

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The NYMEX Henry Hub March/April futures spread is an indicator of the market’s perception of the level of natural gas in storage toward the end of winter. As the perceived risk of “stock-out” increases, the spread increases, and vice versa. At the start of last winter, the March/April 2023 contract spread stood at 79 cents, with storage at a slight deficit and global supply worries still ongoing. Before entering this upcoming winter, the March/April 2024 spread has already collapsed to a mere 18 cents with storage levels that are about 5% and 9% higher than the 5-year average and last year, respectively. Even with a normal winter, gas storage should be well supplied. Find out more about where North American gas markets are headed: • What will be the primary driver of gas demand this winter? • With US gas production slowing, can Canadian net imports provide supply support? • How high will LNG exports ramp up this winter and beyond?

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What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    October 2023 STO.pdf

    PDF 827.90 KB

  • Document

    Demand Detail.xls

    XLS 778.00 KB

  • Document

    Industrial Index.xls

    XLS 122.50 KB

  • Document

    LNG Detail Incl Export.xls

    XLS 256.00 KB

  • Document

    NGL Price Outlook.xls

    XLS 3.61 MB

  • Document

    Northeast Takeaway Capacity.xlsx

    XLSX 406.36 KB

  • Document

    Power Demand Curve.xls

    XLS 64.50 KB

  • Document

    Price Outlook.xls

    XLS 75.00 KB

  • Document

    Storage Outlook.xls

    XLS 123.00 KB

  • Document

    Supply Demand Balances.xls

    XLS 282.50 KB

  • Document

    Supply Detail.xlsx

    XLSX 1.44 MB

  • Document

    North America gas short-term outlook: Winter stock-out risk eroding?

    PDF 967.15 KB

  • Document

    Basis Outlook.xls

    XLS 74.50 KB