Commodity Market Report

Philippines LNG long-term outlook 2019

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23 January 2019

Philippines LNG long-term outlook 2019

Report summary

The Philippines gas industry is largely driven by the power sector, with more than 96% of gas demand stemming from power. The industry is small and has not developed beyond the discovery of the Malampaya-Camago field. This field is expected to go into decline by the early 2020s. Malampaya currently supplies 3,211 MW of gas-fired capacity. LNG will be required to backfill the expected production decline. EWC is building a 1.5-mmtpa LNG terminal in Pagbilao, in southeast Luzon, which we believe will be operational by 2020. First Gen and Tanglawan Philippines LNG are also proposing to build LNG terminals in Batangas. This report presents Wood Mackenzie's view of the LNG supply-demand balance in the Philippines and reviews the key players involved.

Table of contents

  • 3.3 GW of gas fired power is supplied by Malampaya
  • Supply agreements needed to guarantee power and, in turn, LNG demand
  • Selling exclusively into the merchant power market is possible but risky
  • Selling to the industrial sector will be difficult but diesel prices provide headroom
    • Current
    • Proposed
    • Pagbilao
    • Batangas
    • Bataan
  • Downside risks
  • Upside risks
  • Southeast Asia Gas & Power Service

Tables and charts

This report includes 3 images and tables including:

  • Philippines gas supply-demand balance
  • Gas prices (Malampaya)
  • LNG regas infrastructure

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Philippines LNG long-term outlook 2019

    PDF 1.23 MB