Commodity Market Report

Japan LNG long-term outlook 2020

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27 October 2020

Japan LNG long-term outlook 2020

Report summary

Japan LNG long-term market report, including details of the LNG supply-demand balance, regas infrastructure, contract developments, market structure and policy. Key highlights this update include: - Japan's LNG demand will decline but the country will stay in the top three LNG importers in the world through to 2040 -Japanese energy policy is at a crossroads, providing one of the greatest uncertainties to the LNG outlook - As new contract volumes ramp-up and demand falls, Japan risks being overcontracted in the early 2020’s - Japan remains at the forefront of Asian contracting innovation with more diverse contract formulae and indexation, shorter duration deals, joint procurement, and one of the world’s first carbon-neutral LNG cargoes - As contracts roll off from the mid-2020s, Japanese buyers will look to ensure supply security with new long-term volumes, but some bigger buyers will likely be more comfortable relying on the spot market for a share of their procurement exposure

Table of contents

  • Contracting trends
  • Contract outlook
    • 2020 and the Covid-19 outbreak
    • 2021-2022
    • Coal-to-gas switching
    • Power demand
    • Nuclear outlook
    • Non-power demand
    • Residential/Commercial
    • Industry
    • Energy security remains at the heart of Japanese energy policy in the post-Fukushima era

Tables and charts

This report includes 13 images and tables including:

  • Northeast Asia oil-indexation trend
  • Contracted LNG supply by source
  • Contracts vs LNG imports
  • Contracted LNG supply position by buyer
  • Japan regional map - areas of high population and energy demand
  • Gas demand and imports (2015-2040)
  • Japan LNG demand (monthly)
  • Stock levels
  • Short-run coal-to-gas switching curve
  • Power generation mix
  • Nuclear restarts
  • Japan electricity and gas liberalisation timeline
  • Japan energy policy targets (2030)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document


    XLS 521.50 KB

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    Japan LNG long-term outlook 2020

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