LNG short-term outlook - December 2021

As 2021 draws to a close, there appears to be no let-up in the extreme price volatility that characterized much of the year to date. Looking to 2022, we see five areas that market participants should pay close attention to: 1. Accelerating LNG supply recovery: While we expect 2022 to largely bring much needed additional supply relief to the LNG market, there are a number of areas we suggest watching closely. Firstly, the bulk of supply growth is dependant on the start-up of just two projects (Sabine Pass Train 6 and Calcasieu Pass LNG). Secondly, there are many feed gas stories spread across a number of geographies that need monitoring. These include plants in Malaysia, Indonesia, Trinidad, Nigeria, Angola and Egypt. Lastly, we are assuming reduced maintenance disruptions, particularly in Australia, compared to 2021, however, recent disruptions to both Prelude and Gorgon are a reminder that even the best-laid plans fall short.