Insight

China downside sensitivity - The narrow path to reform

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Report summary

Using our proprietary Global Energy Balance Model (GEBM) Wood Mackenzie has developed a sensitivity to our base case in which China suffers a short but deep downturn in economic growth through the 2015 2020 period. Global energy trade growth is severely curtailed by the events playing out in the sensitivity shrinking by an average of 0.4% per year.

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    China downside sensitivity - The narrow path to reform

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  • Document

    Narrow Path to Reform Insight.pdf

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Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 13 images and tables including:

Images

  • China GDP and GDP growth, base case vs. sensitivity
  • Lost economic output 2020, relative to base case
  • China end-use demand by sector 2010 - 2020
  • China primary energy demand by fuel 2010 - 2020
  • Regional oil demand (sensitivity) vs. demand change (sensitivity to base) 2010 - 2020
  • Brent price base case vs. sensitivity 2010 - 2020
  • China vs. US net oil imports 2010 - 2020
  • Europe LNG imports, sensitivity vs. base 2010 - 2020
  • Additional gas supply creates downside price pressure
  • Russia 2020 energy exports by region and commodity, sensitivity vs. base case
  • N America energy trade balance 2010 - 2020
  • N America 2020 exports by region and commodity
  • Regional oil production (sensitivity) vs. Middle East production change (sensitivity to base) 2010 - 2020

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