Insight
China downside sensitivity - The narrow path to reform
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Report summary
Using our proprietary Global Energy Balance Model (GEBM), Wood Mackenzie has developed a sensitivity to our base case in which China suffers a short, but deep downturn in economic growth through the 2015 - 2020 period. Global energy trade growth is severely curtailed by the events playing out in the sensitivity, shrinking by an average of 0.4% per year.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
- Introduction
-
The narrow path to reform
- Economic impacts beyond China
-
China's demand growth is curtailed, but there are few structural changes to fuel demand
- Imports fall faster than demand; energy self-sufficiency improves
- China accounts for more than 30% of lost oil demand by 2020
- Oil prices weaken significantly, but there is little solace for China
- European gas consumers benefit from weak global demand growth
- Russia pushes additional crude into Europe, but loses gas market share
- North America's energy export future called into question?
- Global energy trade growth slows; Middle East fares worst of oil producing regions
- Conclusion
Tables and charts
This report includes 13 images and tables including:
- China GDP and GDP growth, base case vs. sensitivity
- Lost economic output 2020, relative to base case
- China end-use demand by sector 2010 - 2020
- China primary energy demand by fuel 2010 - 2020
- Regional oil demand (sensitivity) vs. demand change (sensitivity to base) 2010 - 2020
- Brent price base case vs. sensitivity 2010 - 2020
- China vs. US net oil imports 2010 - 2020
- Europe LNG imports, sensitivity vs. base 2010 - 2020
- Additional gas supply creates downside price pressure
- Russia 2020 energy exports by region and commodity, sensitivity vs. base case
- N America energy trade balance 2010 - 2020
- N America 2020 exports by region and commodity
- Regional oil production (sensitivity) vs. Middle East production change (sensitivity to base) 2010 - 2020
What's included
This report contains:
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