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China economic focus May 2024: how to resolve excess supply

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China is at the bottom of a business cycle with excess supply arising from overinvestment since 2016. However, the manufacturing and construction sectors will have different ways out of the situation. Excess capacity in the energy transition supply chain may be temporary. Demand will climb to catch up with supply, but China risks potential trade barriers from the US and the EU. Supply will decrease to meet demand in the real estate and infrastructure sectors. The government needs to provide a social safety net while the market is in recession.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Overinvestment leads to excess supply
  • Capacity expansion in green supply chain ahead of rising demand
  • Supply-side strictures in the construction sector
  • Appendix

Tables and charts

This report includes 16 images and tables including:

  • GDP breakdown by expenditure
  • Industry capacity utilisation
  • Capacity utilisation rates by sector
  • Utilisation rates in the green supply chain
  • US-added tariffs on China’s energy transition supply chain
  • Housing completions vs primary demand
  • Debt level of the 12 provinces
  • Wood Mackenzie's proprietary China data
  • Manufacturing PMI
  • Industrial production and retail sales
  • Trade
  • Inflation
  • Property
  • Investment
  • Money supply (M2)
  • Required reserve ratio

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    China economic focus May 2024: how to resolve excess supply

    PDF 1.07 MB