Commodity Market Report

Electric Vehicle Service: H1 2019 long-term outlook

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For the coming decade, the main driver for global EV adoption will shift gradually from government policies towards genuine competitiveness.

What’s the key takeaway from this report?

Wood Mackenzie forecasts electric vehicle sales (including autonomous) to increase from 2 million units in 2018 to over 42 million units by 2040. However, this scale of EV penetration will not come without challenges.

Why buy this report?

  • Get a complete view of how the next two decades will play out in advanced transportation
  • Benefit from our integrated analysis of the EV value chain across three key industries: mining, power and oil/fuels
  • Understand both the challenges to EV adoption and what has the potential to accelerate it, including:
    • Regional policy changes
    • Investment in new car models with higher ranges and lower cost
    • Advances in battery chemistry and availability of battery raw materials

This report comes with datasets and charts, including this one, tracking the fall in battery costs between now and 2040. This substantial drop in battery costs will be a key factor in helping EVs to go mainstream during the 2030s. Scroll down for the full table of contents.

09 September 2019

Electric Vehicle Service: H1 2019 long-term outlook

Report summary

We are pleased to release our inaugural global Electric Vehicles Outlook to 2040 – an integrated mobility and natural resources value chain assessment of how the next two decades may play out in advanced transportation. Tightening environmental norms are prioritising transport sector decarbonisation worldwide. The report is Wood Mackenzie’s thesis of electrification of transport in key markets, evolution of battery technologies and implications for power, oils, metals and chemicals demand.

Table of contents

  • Overview
  • Global EV sales and stock forecast
    • Europe
    • United States
    • China
  • Autonomous electric vehicles (AEVs)
  • E-trucking
  • Auto cost and model trends
  • Battery chemistry and technology trends
  • Metals
  • Oil and oil products
    • Europe
    • North America
    • Asia Pacific
    • Level 1 charging
    • Level 2 charging
    • Level 3 charging (CHAdeMO)
    • Critical factors affecting future growth in EV uptake
    • Regional highlights
    • Europe
    • North America
    • Asia Pacific
    • Residential charging market
    • Europe
    • North America
    • Residential charging equipment market to surpass US$1 billion in both North America and Europe
    • Public charging market
    • Europe
    • North America
    • Total public charging equipment market value expected to surpass $6.4 billion
    • Why do EVs matter for regulated utilities?
  • Plastics, thermoplastics and chemicals

Tables and charts

This report includes 38 images and tables including:

  • Global light-duty vehicle sales
  • Global light-duty vehicles stock
  • Global EV light-duty sales
  • EV light-duty stock
  • Global carbon emissions by sector, 2018
  • Transport sector emissions by region, 2018
  • Investment spurs growth in new car launches with higher range and lower cost
  • Lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity by project status (GWh)
  • Battery cost forecast
  • Battery technology and cost trends
  • Total EV share of demand by metal
  • Total metals demand from EVs
  • Contributions to global liquids demand from cars
  • Global liquids demand saved in the car sector
  • Global liquid demand saved by Evs
  • Global liquids demand by product
  • Weight distribution of materials in a ICE mid-size car (1507 kg)
  • Thermoplastics Polymers used in a ICE mid-sized car
  • Thermoplastics Polymer used in a ICE mid-sized car
  • EV outlook comparison
  • Our integrated methodology allows us to analyse the EV space in great detail.
  • EU fuel efficiency
  • EV car sales % in Europe
  • Dynamics behind US EV states and sales
  • Dynamics behind EV sales in China
  • Europe generation mix and carbon intensity of power
  • Europe EV power demand
  • North America generation mix and carbon intensity
  • North America EV power demand
  • China generation mix and carbon intensity
  • China EV power demand
  • APAC (ex-China) generation mix and carbon intensity
  • APAC (ex-China) EV power demand
  • Level 1 and 2 chargers in North America and Europe
  • Residential charging equipment market valuation
  • Public charger installations in Europe
  • Public charger installations in North America
  • Public infrastructure market valuation by type and geography

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Electric Vehicle Service: H1 2019 long-term outlook

    PDF 1.97 MB

  • Document

    WM EV LTO H1 2019.xlsx

    XLSX 382.72 KB