Global economic outlook Q2 2018: how far will growth fall?

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The global economy entered 2018 on a high, but momentum has since waned. We expect the wobbles in early 2018 to be short lived. A full-blown trade conflict between China and the US is a risk but still an outside one; both sides have too much to lose and relatively little to gain. The US economy is growing at a healthy pace, and we don't expect inflation to rise much above the Fed's 2% target. Interest rates will rise, but at a pace the markets should be able to handle. And as the US dollar resumes its slide, emerging markets will breather a little easier. Our global economic outlook is positive for the next couple of years, but risks are weighted to the downside.

Table of contents

  • Increasing risks in early 2018
  • How much slack remains in the US labour market?
  • China returns to controlled slowdown
  • Conclusion

Tables and charts

This report includes 6 images and tables including:

  • US dollar index rebounding in 2018
  • Major equity indices
  • Composite purchasing managers' indices (PMIs)
  • US labour market
  • US labour force participation rate
  • China nominal GDP by sector

What's included

This report contains:

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    Global economic outlook Q2 2018: how far will growth fall?

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