Global economic outlook Q3 2023: muddling through

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Global economic growth is slowing amid high inflation and rising interest rates. Yet despite these drags, the global economy remains resilient, albeit out of sync at sector and regional levels. We forecast the global economy to muddle through a soft landing. Some factors point to the global economy turning the corner. Inflation, although still elevated in many major economies, is relenting and interest rates are close to peaking. A synchronised global recession should be avoided. However, challenges persist. In particular, China is falling below growth expectations after reopening.

Table of contents

    • Challenges persist
    • Sensational services
    • Inflation relenting
    • China’s reopening regresses
    • Headwinds for Asia's exports
    • US defiant
    • Europe flirts with recession
    • Commodity producers come back down to earth
    • Diminishing long-term global growth potential
    • Risks to the outlook

Tables and charts

This report includes 8 images and tables including:

  • GDP growth in major economies
  • Inflation is falling sharply
  • Imbalanced recovery in China
  • China's urbanisation slows
  • External demand depressed by global economic slowdown
  • Contribution to US GDP growth
  • US job additions slowing
  • EU economic growth is fragile

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global economic outlook Q3 2023: muddling through

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