Metals and mining: 5 things to look for in 2023 Report

Insight 19 January 2023

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Report summary

In 2022 war in Ukraine supercharged already-rampant inflation and China’s covid-zero policy continued to exacerbate a world-wide supply crunch. Price volatility and cost inflation reached record highs. It is premature to assume a return to normality in 2023. The energy crisis will persist, meaning input prices for commodity production and finished goods will stay high. What’s different this year is that we are firmly on the downward limb of the economic cycle as Governments (and investors) respond to the scourge of inflation, while consumers run for cover. The other major difference to last year - China’s emergence from its covid stupor - is perhaps just what the world needs, propping up global growth and ensuring 2023 is the bottom of the cycle. In this report our analysts identify key themes for the year ahead. Links to separate reports for each of the major commodities and commodity groups are provided below.

Economy: slowing growth but recovery around the corner
Supply: disruption likely to get worse before it gets better.
Energy transition: Driving demand growth and technology change in 2023
Prices: More turmoil in the offing
China: Reasserting its authority over commodity markets
- Steel: Respite for margins but demand growth uncertain
- Expect Chinese property markets to improve, but be patient
- Look for cost suppression to aid margin expansion for steelmakers
- Watch for major investment decisions on new green metallic hubs
- Iron ore: demand flat as China hot metal peaks, but watch for upside if economic rebound is stronger than expected
- Negotiations for 2023 import volumes worth following as China's CMRG vies for influence
- Simandou's credentials to improve again
- Expect more from miner’s decarbonisation agendas
- 52 more item(s)...