Metals and mining: 5 things to look for in 2023
Report summary
Table of contents
- Economy: slowing growth but recovery around the corner
- Supply: disruption likely to get worse before it gets better.
- Energy transition: Driving demand growth and technology change in 2023
- Prices: More turmoil in the offing
-
China: Reasserting its authority over commodity markets
- Steel: Respite for margins but demand growth uncertain
- Expect Chinese property markets to improve, but be patient
- Look for cost suppression to aid margin expansion for steelmakers
- Watch for major investment decisions on new green metallic hubs
- Iron ore: demand flat as China hot metal peaks, but watch for upside if economic rebound is stronger than expected
- Negotiations for 2023 import volumes worth following as China's CMRG vies for influence
- Simandou's credentials to improve again
- Expect more from miner’s decarbonisation agendas
- Metallurgical Coal: 2023 a chance for supply to shine
- No end in sight for trade flow adjustment
- Sunshine for Australia? Will supply finally outpace demand growth in 2023?
- Crossover coal - enough is enough
- Thermal coal: Another year of harvesting value
- Price collapse likely, but mine margins to stay high
- China reopening to undermine price, eventually
- Supply recovering, but greenfield development gets harder still
- Noble alloys: All eyes on the Chinese recovery
- China's reopening sets the stage for growth
- Vanadium use in batteries to double this year
- Bulk Alloys: Adjusting to a changing landscape
- Carbon border adjustment mechanism to offer respite for EU producers
- Manganese taking a greater role in cathode chemistries
- Silicon metal futures to become entrenched after debut in late 2022
- Aluminium: searching for stability, and emissions cuts
- No end yet for volatility in price premia
- Renewable power to extend its reach in 2023 as low-carbon products proliferate
- Can smelter production stabilise in the face of energy market tribulations
- Copper: 2023 a stellar year for both supply and demand
- Uneven Chinese growth rates keeps the market guessing
- Can the market hold on to recent gains
- Demand benefitting from energy transition targets
- Will investors commit to new mining projects?
- Nickel: Identity crisis makes compelling viewing
- LME's dominant nickel contract future in doubt after catastrophic 2022
- Hydrogen and battery recycling technologies to make a splash this year
- Nickel raw materials and EV supply chain look for a future beyond Indonesia and China.
- Zinc: New concentrate supply to ease burden of high power prices on smelter economics
- China's trace element limits change arouses fears for concentrate flows
- Confidence of the consumer will be key for zinc
- Expect European producers to continue to manage smelter supply
- Gold: benefitting from economic headwinds and a hint of chaos
- M&A uptick likely with attractive valuations for some in a positive market
- ESG Initiatives: Investor buy-in and cost savings to motivate more players to walk the talk
- Royalty and streaming deals on the up as explorers seek alternative finance
- Electric Vehicles and Battery Supply Chain: Time to take a breath?
- China's decade-long EV incentive program to end, but tax breaks will make for a soft landing
- OEMs will chase harder than ever for security in raw material and component supply
- Supply chain sustainability rising on the priority list
- Lithium: Can the exceptionalism continue?
- Direct Saleable Ore (DSO) lithium to return with a vengeance in 2023
- EV penetration to slow but lithium demand set for another year of 25% growth
- Clamour for useable price indices to become deafening this year
- Cathode and Precursor: Jockeying for position
- Oversupply of LFP cathode but tightness in nickel-based cathodes
- More optimised solutions for energy density, driving range, and safety in cathodes
- Reality bites: Cathode and precursor materials prices to fall
- Rare Earths: consigning 2022 to history
- Consolidation in Chinese supply isn't finished yet
- Offshore wind drivetrain preferences to take 2023 rare earth demand to new highs
- Diversification of rare earth sourcing to accelerate
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