Insight

Q4 2016 Global economy: US resurgence, China resilience, Brexit defiance

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Report summary

After a difficult start to the year, the global economy has strengthened in the second half of 2016. A number of shocks hit the global economy stemming from political sources. The UK voted to leave the EU and the US elected Donald Trump its next president. Arguably, more surprising is how these shocks have been absorbed. Elsewhere, China's growth remains on course to hit the official government target this year. Finally, the OPEC deal offers some relief to governments of oil producing economies of the Middle East. Will this momentum be sustained through 2017? 

What's included

This report contains

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    Q4 2016 Global economy: US resurgence, China resilience, Brexit defiance

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Table of contents

  • UK economy defies Brexit shock – for now
  • United States: economy accelerating into 2017
  • China growth resilient, but debt risks rising
  • Middle East: will oil prices recover to bail out governments?
  • Conclusion

Tables and charts

This report includes 10 images and tables including:

Images

  • PMI and consumer confidence
  • Employment gains vs unemployment rate
  • Nominal wage growth vs inflation
  • Pound sterling real trade weighted index
  • US employment in oil and gas extraction
  • Total US rig count
  • US dollar index and government bond yields
  • China household debt
  • Household debt as % of GDP
  • Middle East fiscal balance projections for 2017

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