Insight
Russia/Ukraine conflict: the economics of war
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, the escalating conflict and subsequent sanctions on Russia by Western countries and their allies have rocked the global economy. The destruction caused by the war has Ukraine heading for a deep economic contraction in 2022. In Russia, the economic picture is deteriorating too with the squeeze of sanctions. The global economy risks being thrown off course. In this insight, we outline how Russia and Ukraine face economic collapse in the short term. And we consider how bad the situation could get for the global economy in a downside scenario.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
- Economics of war
- Ukrainian economy set back two decades
-
Russian economy feeling the pain
- Business climate in Russia deteriorating rapidly
- Will Russia default on its debt?
- Ripple effects for the global economy
- How bad could it get for the global economy?
- Does this change the global economic landscape indelibly?
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
-
Ukraine economic collapsePopulation flightRussian official reserve assets
-
Oil price in roublesRussia's top trading partners (2020)Trade exposure to Russia (2020)Russia net foreign direct investment (FDI) outflowsBanks' exposure to RussiaGlobal GDP growthGlobal GDP index
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Insight
Russia/Ukraine crisis: Recession risk and what it means for oil demand
Our short-term demand scenario incorporating downside risk from the Russia/Ukraine crisis
$1,350
Insight
US EV slowdown – A deep dive into what’s influencing our revised Q1 electrification forecast
Raised EMI premiums, worsening BEV margins and sinking model availability indicate that the US is headed for an EV winter this decade
$1,050
Insight
Conflict in the Middle East: the impact on Russia's oil outlook
We outline the consequences of the war in the Middle East for the Russian oil sector and the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes.
$1,350
