2022 was anything but dull for the aluminium market with the war in Ukraine, surging power prices, China’s stop-start economy and slowing metal demand growth. The LME price halved from a high of US$4000/t in March to a low of US$2079/t in September. 2023 looks set for more of the same, with significant challenges ahead for market participants across the value chain. What happens in China does not stay in China and will have a significant bearing on shaping global market fundamentals. The scale of the widely anticipated recovery in Chinese demand will determine the level of growth required in primary aluminium and alumina supply. Also watch out for how consumers of metal deal with distorted supply chains and increased emphasis on the origin and carbon metrics of metal. In this Insight we have picked out key themes that need close attention in the way that they could shape the market.