Brazil iron ore supply summary

Wood Mackenzie's report covers about 96% of Brazil's iron ore industry. Emerging players like J&F Mineracao are also gaining traction. Brazil remains a key player due to its high-quality iron ore, with Vale advancing their solution-centric strategy. Despite this, Brazilian miners have lost their cost advantage over Australian competitors. The weakening Chinese construction sector affects demand and challenges the industry. Brazil’s ambitions to mine an extra 100 Mtpa and Simandou’s development will contribute to a significant swing factor for global seaborne supply over the medium to long term. Forecast prices stand at US$110/tonne in 2024, decreasing to US$75/tonne long term. Brazilian producers will likely see margins around US$30-33/tonne. The transition towards value-based pricing and the demand for high-grade ores benefits Brazilian suppliers like Vale and Anglo-American. Pellet producers also maintain high margins due to their benchmark status worldwide.