Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2019
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Why buy this aluminium report?
- Get forecasts on the aluminium future price and analysis of the factors that will influence price to 2040
- Get supply, aluminium demand and global aluminium market analysis from our team of experts. We unpack issues including the impact of China’s environmental compliance programme on refinery margins, the effect of the economic slowdown on the global aluminium market and expected drivers of future global aluminium demand
- Understand how macro-economic factors such as the US-China trade war have impacted the aluminium market sentiment
The report comes with data sets and charts, including this one, which forecasts market balances to 2040.
Report summary
The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2040. Our latest iteration of global primary aluminium market fundamentals points to a tight market out to 2022. Near-term, the US-China trade war, a weaker economic growth landscape in Europe and China and the continued strong flow of semis exports from China have conspired to dampen market sentiment. However, over the medium-term, the rest of the world will need to fill an ever wider supply gap left by lower Chinese semis exports.
Table of contents
- Changes to consumption forecasts since Q4 2018
-
Forecasts by region
- Asia
- China
- Asia ex-China
-
Europe
- North America
- United States
-
South America
- Brazil
- Project Classification
-
Smelter production and capacity
- Summary
- Global smelter production and capacity 2017-2040
- Africa
- North America
- Latin America
- Middle East
- Asia
- Europe
- 2 more item(s)...
-
Refinery production and capacity
- Summary
- Global refinery production and capacity 2017-2040
- Africa
- North America
- Latin America
- Middle East
- Asia
- India
- 4 more item(s)...
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Bauxite production
- Regional focus
- Africa
- Latin America
- North America
- Middle East
- Asia
- Other Asia
- Europe
- 2 more item(s)...
- Aluminium market outlook
- Alumina market outlook
-
Seaborne bauxite market outlook
- Main risks around our base case aluminium market outlook
- Long term aluminium prices
- Long-term alumina prices
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q4 2018 vs Q1 2019 (kt)
- Europe primary aluminium consumption 2017-2022, 2025, 2035 and 2040 (kt)
- European car production by engine type
- European consumption of primary aluminium
- Total bauxite supply and demand, Mt
- Global metallurgical bauxite requirement 2017-2022, 2025, 2035, 2040 (Mt)
- Base case global bauxite supply 2017-2022, 2025, 2035, 2040 (Mt)
- Global supply-demand balance, LME cash prices and stocks in days of consumption
- Crunch time coming for new rest of the world supply
- Global aluminium balance, 2017-2022, 2025, 2035, 2040
- World ex-China alumina capacity and demand (Mt)
- Rest of the world alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2018-2021
- 67 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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