Global aluminium long-term outlook Q2 2019

The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2040. Global economic conditions have continued to weaken over the past three months. The US-China trade war is taking its toll on investor and consumer confidence in China, in particular. The recent tensions between the US and Iran has also added another negative dimension to market sentiment. Despite these nearby headwinds we expect the global market balance to remain tight over the next five years. With days of consumption falling to below our long term average, we forecast average annual prices to move higher on fundamental support.