Wood Mackenzie's Q3 aluminium Long Term Outlook analysis for global supply demand dynamics and prices indicates a market that will be under pressure from a build up in metal surplus and low prices over the next 2 3 years. This is very much a China supply side story with demand growth in the ROW projected to be steady if not spectacular. The market in the ROW will remain tight but more than offset by large surpluses in China much of which will find a home in ROW markets. We estimate primary aluminium production of 57.3Mt in 2015 up 7.3% on 2014 with China contributing 31Mt to the total a 12% year on year increase. We project further increases in Chinese production as global output growth jumps 6.7% in 2016. The onus is clearly on Chinese producers to address overcapacity. We expect the market to start the journey to balance only in 2018 with production adjustments primarily in China. Without production cuts we could be in for an extended period of weak market fundamentals.