Global aluminium short-term outlook April 2023

Despite several attempts to move the price higher, there is currently little underlying conviction in the market for a sustained rebound in the price. The official cash price drifted to a month low of US$2258/t on 12 April after the US Federal Reserve signalled that further monetary policy tightening was required to contain inflation, despite the warning of recessionary risks in the US economy later this year. Prices found some strength from the release of China’s Q1 GDP growth figure, which came in above expectations at 4.5%. Indeed, the cash price hit a month high of US$2409/t on 20 April. The move higher was also bolstered by news of strike action at Hydro Aluminium’s Karmoy and Ardal smelters, though this proved to be short-lived with a settlement reached just a few days after.