Global aluminium short-term outlook August 2019

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. LME aluminium prices traded in a narrow US$1760-1720/t range over the past month. Meaningful supply disruptions in China failed to ignite any response in prices. Escalation in the trade war and a poor overall set of economic data continued to set the tone for price direction, or lack of. Market focus is very much gripped by the near-term outlook for the global economy and rising geopolitical risks. With the notable exception of nickel, investor sentiment across all LME base metals is poor. Unless, we get a strong post-summer season bounce in physical demand we expect price action to remain trapped in a narrow range over the next month.