Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium short-term outlook August 2019
Report summary
The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. LME aluminium prices traded in a narrow US$1760-1720/t range over the past month. Meaningful supply disruptions in China failed to ignite any response in prices. Escalation in the trade war and a poor overall set of economic data continued to set the tone for price direction, or lack of. Market focus is very much gripped by the near-term outlook for the global economy and rising geopolitical risks. With the notable exception of nickel, investor sentiment across all LME base metals is poor. Unless, we get a strong post-summer season bounce in physical demand we expect price action to remain trapped in a narrow range over the next month.
Table of contents
- China
-
Asia ex-China
- Japan
- Europe
- North America
- Alumina Market Developments
Tables and charts
This report includes 23 images and tables including:
- Slight improvement in manufacturing activity masks underlying weakness
- Infrastructure investment disappoints again
- Pace of decline in the automotive sector eases
- Housing sector will remain weak in 2019 on lack of stimulus
- European automotive sheet capacity
- US imports of PSS
- North American shipments of sheet and plate
- Summary of July production, kt
- China smelter cuts
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since July, (kt)
- World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2018-2021, (kt)
- Changes in global SGA production estimates since July, (kt)
- China refining cuts, kt
- Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
- Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global alumina production (kt)
- Global primary aluminium production (kt)
- Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Japanese production of semis
- European automotive sheet capacity
- Chinese exports of semis to the EU28
- SHFE-LME import arbitrage for Chinese semis
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
28 August 2019
Global lead short-term outlook August 2019
Commodity Market Report
Global lead short-term outlook August 2019
Port Pirie will remain a key driver of both LME lead prices and spot TCs so long as it finds it impossible to operate normally.
$2,50029 August 2019
Global copper short-term outlook August 2019
Commodity Market Report
Global copper short-term outlook August 2019
The US-China trade war continues to undermine economic and market confidence, leading to a deterioration in copper prices throughout August
$2,50030 August 2019
Global thermal coal short-term outlook August 2019: are we at the bottom?
Commodity Market Report
Global thermal coal short-term outlook August 2019: are we at the bottom?
Coal prices hit three-year low. Are we at the bottom yet?
$2,000
