Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook August 2019

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29 August 2019

Global aluminium short-term outlook August 2019

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. LME aluminium prices traded in a narrow US$1760-1720/t range over the past month. Meaningful supply disruptions in China failed to ignite any response in prices. Escalation in the trade war and a poor overall set of economic data continued to set the tone for price direction, or lack of. Market focus is very much gripped by the near-term outlook for the global economy and rising geopolitical risks. With the notable exception of nickel, investor sentiment across all LME base metals is poor. Unless, we get a strong post-summer season bounce in physical demand we expect price action to remain trapped in a narrow range over the next month.

Table of contents

  • China
    • Japan
    • Europe
  • North America
  • Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 23 images and tables including:

  • Slight improvement in manufacturing activity masks underlying weakness
  • Infrastructure investment disappoints again
  • Pace of decline in the automotive sector eases
  • Housing sector will remain weak in 2019 on lack of stimulus
  • European automotive sheet capacity
  • US imports of PSS
  • North American shipments of sheet and plate
  • Summary of July production, kt
  • China smelter cuts
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since July, (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2018-2021, (kt)
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since July, (kt)
  • China refining cuts, kt
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Japanese production of semis
  • European automotive sheet capacity
  • Chinese exports of semis to the EU28
  • SHFE-LME import arbitrage for Chinese semis

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook August 2019

    PDF 1.24 MB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook August 2019

    ZIP 1.50 MB