Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook August 2019

Get this report


You can pay by card or invoice

Contact us

Submit your details to receive further information about this report.

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.

- FAQs about online orders
- Find out more about subscriptions

29 August 2019

Global aluminium short-term outlook August 2019

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. LME aluminium prices traded in a narrow US$1760-1720/t range over the past month. Meaningful supply disruptions in China failed to ignite any response in prices. Escalation in the trade war and a poor overall set of economic data continued to set the tone for price direction, or lack of. Market focus is very much gripped by the near-term outlook for the global economy and rising geopolitical risks. With the notable exception of nickel, investor sentiment across all LME base metals is poor. Unless, we get a strong post-summer season bounce in physical demand we expect price action to remain trapped in a narrow range over the next month.

Table of contents

  • China
    • Japan
    • Europe
  • North America
  • Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 23 images and tables including:

  • Slight improvement in manufacturing activity masks underlying weakness
  • Infrastructure investment disappoints again
  • Pace of decline in the automotive sector eases
  • Housing sector will remain weak in 2019 on lack of stimulus
  • European automotive sheet capacity
  • US imports of PSS
  • North American shipments of sheet and plate
  • Summary of July production, kt
  • China smelter cuts
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since July, (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2018-2021, (kt)
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since July, (kt)
  • China refining cuts, kt
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Japanese production of semis
  • European automotive sheet capacity
  • Chinese exports of semis to the EU28
  • SHFE-LME import arbitrage for Chinese semis

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook August 2019

    PDF 1.24 MB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook August 2019

    ZIP 1.50 MB