Global aluminium short-term outlook December 2023

Since hitting an intra-day high of US$2295/t in November, the LME price has come under persistent selling pressure with prices falling to a new 2023 low of US$2109/t on 12 December. The price trajectory has since reversed, staging a mini rally after the US Fed signalled that it may implement three rate cuts in 2024, driving prices to trade above the US$2200/t level. There are encouraging signs that the incessant drop in European ingot premiums may finally be coming to an end. Quotes appear to have reached a floor with offers rising by US$10/t for duty paid material in the final week of December. However, it is too early to tell if we will see further upside to premiums in early 2024; construction demand is set to remain weak while offtake from the packaging sector will remain sluggish against the backdrop of destocking in the can sheet and foil markets.