Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium short-term outlook February 2020
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. The uplift in market sentiment last month on the back of a de-escalation in the US-China trade war rapidly evaporated in February over concerns about the impact of the Covid-19 virus on global economic activity. The moves to limit the spread of the disease have had a dramatic and widespread impact on all parts of China’s economy, particularly logistics. This is also impacting the supply chain in the rest of the world. The international spread of the disease severely dented investor sentiment towards risky assets and we expect near-term LME prices to test the US$1600/t level.
Table of contents
- China
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Asia ex-China
- Japan
- Europe
- North America
- Alumina Market Developments
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Primary demand growth close to flat in H1 2020 with risk of further downgradeDownstream operations struggling to resume output as workers left strandedCoal consumption at major coastal power plants
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All bets off on how bad the near-term PMI data will beNorth American shipments of flat-rolled productsUS shipments of extrusionsSummary of January production, ktChanges in aluminium production estimates since January, (kt)World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2019-2022, (kt)China refinery cuts during the CoronavirusChanges in global SGA production estimates since January, (kt)Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
- 7 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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