Global aluminium short-term outlook February 2020

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. The uplift in market sentiment last month on the back of a de-escalation in the US-China trade war rapidly evaporated in February over concerns about the impact of the Covid-19 virus on global economic activity. The moves to limit the spread of the disease have had a dramatic and widespread impact on all parts of China’s economy, particularly logistics. This is also impacting the supply chain in the rest of the world. The international spread of the disease severely dented investor sentiment towards risky assets and we expect near-term LME prices to test the US$1600/t level.