Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook March 2019

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26 March 2019

Global aluminium short-term outlook March 2019

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Our latest iteration of global market fundamentals continues to point to a tight market over the next few years. This assumes a soft landing for the global economy and aluminium demand plus some restraint in Chinese output growth. However, survey-based evidence suggests that global economic growth is decelerating quicker than expected. The risk to our market outlook is weighted to the downside – a less tight market and price lower than our base case forecast.

Table of contents

  • China
    • Japan
    • Europe
  • North America
  • Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 25 images and tables including:

  • China's Caixin PMI rebounds but still below 50
  • US-China trade plummets as trade war bites
  • No end in sight to downturn in the automotive sector
  • The China construction conundrum
  • Sources of finance for property investment
  • US imports of aluminium structures from China
  • US imports of can stock
  • US production of rolled products
  • Summary of February production, kt
  • Monthly output
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since February, (kt)
  • Spot alumina prices, (US$/t)
  • World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2017-2021, (kt)
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since February, (kt)
  • China refinery capacity additions
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Japanese production of semis
  • UK exports of aluminium and semis to the EU
  • UK imports of aluminium and semis from the EU

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook March 2019

    PDF 1.24 MB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook March 2019

    ZIP 1.38 MB

  • Document

    Data tables aluminium STO March 2019.xls

    XLS 583.50 KB

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