Global aluminium short-term outlook November 2021

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. . The official cash LME price maintained its broadly downward trend from the last week of October. The price hit a month-low of US$2490/t in the first week of the month on news of an easing in power availability in China and a stronger US dollar. Since then, the official LME quote had looked to build on some limited dip buying, reaching a month high on 25 November at US$2740/t before news of a more vaccine resistant variant emerged. The more than a US$100/t drop in the price over two days was driven by fears over tighter regulations being imposed in Europe and elsewhere and the possibility of short-term lockdowns to follow if the outbreak is not contained. Sentiment had turned bullish, prior to the emergence of the variant, on declining LME stocks and lower than expected output growth.