Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook November 2021

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The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. . The official cash LME price maintained its broadly downward trend from the last week of October. The price hit a month-low of US$2490/t in the first week of the month on news of an easing in power availability in China and a stronger US dollar. Since then, the official LME quote had looked to build on some limited dip buying, reaching a month high on 25 November at US$2740/t before news of a more vaccine resistant variant emerged. The more than a US$100/t drop in the price over two days was driven by fears over tighter regulations being imposed in Europe and elsewhere and the possibility of short-term lockdowns to follow if the outbreak is not contained. Sentiment had turned bullish, prior to the emergence of the variant, on declining LME stocks and lower than expected output growth.

Table of contents

  • China
  • Asia ex-China
  • Europe
  • North America
  • Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 28 images and tables including:

  • Retail sales and industrial production show some resilience
  • Manufacturing activity remains subdued
  • Weak construction sector activity dragging aluminium demand growth lower in Q4
  • Investment activity slowing, but manufacturing holding up well
  • Japanese production of semis
  • Chinese exports of aluminium semis to the EU
  • US shipments of extrusions
  • US shipments of flat-rolled products
  • Summary of October production, kt
  • ROW supply increase
  • Global output rates (annualised)
  • New suspensions in China in November
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • Spot alumina price
  • World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2020-2023, (kt)
  • Shanxi refinery environmental grades, 2020 vs 2021
  • World ex-China alumina balance
  • China smelter grade alumina balance
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina regions
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global aluminium prices and premia
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
  • Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook November 2021

    PDF 1.24 MB