Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2018
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. So far in 2018, the aluminium price has enjoyed a quick burst on the upside and a slow consolidated sell-off, all the while defending the psychological price level at $2000/t. October was no different to this trend. The official cash price hit a month high of $2243/t on 4 October on the surprise news of a complete cessation of output at the Alunorte refinery. The quick agreement to resume operations at the previous 50% of capacity sent prices tumbling again to below key support at $2000/t. Despite positive fundamentals, fears of the impact of the trade dominate market sentiment. It is a case of love the fundamentals but fear the macroeconomic outlook.
Table of contents
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China
- China PMIs weaken in September and October on growing trade tensions and softer export markets
- Japan
- Europe
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United States
- Summary of September production, kt
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since September, (kt)
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Alumina Market Developments
- World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2017-2020, (kt)
- Changes in global SGA production estimates since September, (kt)
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Japanese production of semis
- US imports of plate, sheet, strip and foil
- North American production of extrusions
- Shipments of castings by sector
- Use of primary vs secondary aluminium in casings
- Proportion of smelters that are cash negative at current aluminium prices
- Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth supported by acceleration in projects starts
- Auto output and sales fall further in September
- Starts accelerate ahead of winter season
- 11 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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