Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2019

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31 October 2019

Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2019

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. The global supply/demand balance for primary aluminium is negative by 1.5 Mt in 2019 but is switching to surplus from 2020. As supply-demand fundamentals deteriorate, prices weaken and smelters are more likely to curtail loss making production from 2020.

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 23 images and tables including:

  • PMI survey improving
  • Seasonal lift in property sales, but unlikely to be sustained
  • Fixed asset investment remains subdued
  • US shipments of flat products
  • US shipments of extrusions
  • US imports of can sheet
  • Alcoa’s smelters
  • Summary of September production, kt
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since September, (kt)
  • China alumina imports rise on widening arbitrage
  • China alumina imports
  • World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2018-2021, (kt)
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since September, (kt)
  • China bauxite imports
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • EU exports of semis to the US
  • China exports of semis to the EU

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Data tables aluminium STO October 2019.xls

    XLS 838.50 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2019

    PDF 1.12 MB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2019

    ZIP 1.31 MB

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