Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2020

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28 October 2020

Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2020

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Our discussions with industry participants around LME Week paint a picture of a market that is in a holding pattern. Against the background of heightened uncertainty over recovery in ROW aluminium demand and the ever changing background of virus containment, there is little conviction in the run-up in prices above the US$1800/t level. Indeed, at the time of writing, the cash price had broken below support at US$1800/t due to rising US infection rates and some European countries announcing a return to national lockdowns. Against this background we continue to forecast a sizable build in the global metal surplus out to 2022.

Table of contents

  • China
  • Asia ex-China
  • Europe
  • North America
  • Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 30 images and tables including:

  • Stimulus supporting economic activity
  • Investment's contribution to GDP slowed in Q3
  • Property sector growth moderates
  • SOE investment still driving overall economic activity
  • Japanese production of semis
  • Exports of aluminium rolled products to the US by European countries under investigation
  • US shipments of automotive sheet
  • US shipments of extrusions
  • US shipments of can sheet
  • Summary of September production, kt
  • Rivers and smelters in Yunnan province
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • World ex-China smelter grade alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2019-2022, (kt)
  • China alumina imports
  • Operating rates in key alumina-producing provinces
  • World ex-China smelter grade alumina balance
  • China smelter grade alumina balance
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • Atlantic SGA balance
  • Middle East SGA balance
  • Pacific SGA balance
  • World ex-China alumina regions
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global aluminium prices and premia
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
  • Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2020

    PDF 1.71 MB