Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2020
Report summary
The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Our discussions with industry participants around LME Week paint a picture of a market that is in a holding pattern. Against the background of heightened uncertainty over recovery in ROW aluminium demand and the ever changing background of virus containment, there is little conviction in the run-up in prices above the US$1800/t level. Indeed, at the time of writing, the cash price had broken below support at US$1800/t due to rising US infection rates and some European countries announcing a return to national lockdowns. Against this background we continue to forecast a sizable build in the global metal surplus out to 2022.
Table of contents
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Europe
- North America
- Alumina Market Developments
Tables and charts
This report includes 30 images and tables including:
- Stimulus supporting economic activity
- Investment's contribution to GDP slowed in Q3
- Property sector growth moderates
- SOE investment still driving overall economic activity
- Japanese production of semis
- Exports of aluminium rolled products to the US by European countries under investigation
- US shipments of automotive sheet
- US shipments of extrusions
- US shipments of can sheet
- Summary of September production, kt
- Rivers and smelters in Yunnan province
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
- World ex-China smelter grade alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2019-2022, (kt)
- China alumina imports
- Operating rates in key alumina-producing provinces
- World ex-China smelter grade alumina balance
- China smelter grade alumina balance
- Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
- Atlantic SGA balance
- Middle East SGA balance
- Pacific SGA balance
- World ex-China alumina regions
- Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
- Global aluminium prices and premia
- Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
- Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
- Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
- Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
- Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
What's included
This report contains:
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