Global copper short-term outlook March 2019

The rally in prices that was very much in evidence through February, ran out of steam in March against a backdrop of weaker macro economic data and a hike in LME inventories. The volume of inventory that was eventually attracted back onto the exchange, helped lift stocks off their multi-year lows and saw the cash to three months backwardation narrow. Global copper demand growth in 2018 turned out to be slightly weaker than suggested in our previous report. A contraction in semis production in a number of countries combined with lower than anticipated mine disruptions kept the market in balance in 2018. Over the next couple of years, tightening metal market fundamentals against a backdrop of moderating demand growth and weak mine supply will drag inventories well below equilibrium levels of 65 days and encourage a rally in prices. The anticipated rise in prices should provide sufficient confidence to encourage new supply back to the market by 2021.