Commodity Market Report
Global Iron Ore Strategic Planning Outlook – Q1 2023
Report summary
The reopening of the Chinese economy after three years of strict Covid-19 restrictions contributed to rising iron ore prices so far in 2023, in an environment of relatively low supply. However, global iron ore demand growth of only 1% in 2023 will contribute to prices fizzling out in the second half of the year. Our view is for the 62% Fe fines CFR China price to average US$115/t in 2023. No change to our view that prices will trend lower over the next five years in anticipation of easing supply constraints and moderation in Chinese demand. We have lowered our long term price to US$73/t CFR (real 2023 terms) versus our previous forecast of US$80/t. The catalyst being the inclusion of Simandou in our base case forecast. Several risks remain that are intrinsic to projects of this size, but the eventual additional supply from Simandou will negatively impact the long term iron ore price. This report presents our current assessment of iron ore market dynamics and long term price outlook.
Table of contents
-
What’s changed since Q4 2022?
- Overview
- Demand view
- Supply view
- Price view
-
The five-year view - what’s changed?
- Seaborne Trade
- Price Forecast
- Simplified market balance and cost support
- Price versus costs
- Premiums and discounts
- Price outlook for lump
- Price outlook for pellets
-
The long term outlook (post-2026)
- Forecasting rationale
- Long term price forecast lowered to US$73/t CFR (previously US$80/t)
- Key swing factors that could impact the long-term view:
- Overview
- Asia
-
China
- Steel production in China to edge up in 2023
- EAF share continues to grow for decarbonisation in the medium term
- H-DRI will ramp up in the long term but BF-BOF to remain dominant
- Iron ore imports to decline while import dependency rises
-
India
- Indian iron ore demand to grow by 6% in 2023, led by strong hot metal production
- Indian steel capacity to boom in the next decade; BOF to remain dominant
- Japan
-
South Korea
- Impact of decarbonisation in Japan and South Korea
- Taiwan
- South East Asia
- Other Asia
- Europe
- EU and the UK
- Turkey
- CIS
- Russia
- Ukraine
- North America
- United States
- Mexico
- Canada
- South America
- Brazil
- Other South American countries
- Middle East and North Africa
- Iran
- Algeria
- Egypt
- Africa
-
Overview
- Key changes to the seaborne supply forecast this quarter:
- Key trends by product type
- Sinter fines
- Pellet feed
- Lump
- Pellet
-
Regional analysis: key changes to the forecast
- Brazil
- Chile
- Peru
- Canada
- United States
- Liberia
- Mauritania
- Sierra Leone
- Gabon
- Guinea
- South Africa
- Europe
- Russia
- Ukraine
- Kazakhstan
- China
- India
- Asia (excluding China and India)
- Iran
Tables and charts
This report includes 46 images and tables including:
- Tier 3 and Chinese domestic supply requirement
- ViU adjusted 2030 Cost curve
- Price and cash cost, by percentile contestable market, CFR China)
- Premium and discount for high/low grade iron ore (US$/t and %)
- Iron ore lump premium
- Blast furnace pellet premium
- Overview of global steel and iron ore market
- China key demand data
- JKT demand dynamics
- Korean iron ore demand to overtake Japans'
- S.E.Asia Iron ore consumption
- Indonesia to gain share in S.E.Asia
- Europe: key demand forecast data
- EU + UK share of iron ore consumption (2022)
- EU + UK share of global iron ore trade (2022)
- Turkey blast furnace consumption mix
- Turkey Iron ore demand-supply dynamics
- Key demand forecast data
- North America: key demand forecast data
- Canada iron ore consumption mix
- Canada iron ore supply dynamics
- South America steel and iron ore market forecasts
- South america iron ore consumption mix by countries
- Venezuela iron ore consumption
- Middle East and North Africa: key demand forecast data
- Iran DRI and HM production
- Iran Iron ore product mix
- Egypt & Algeria Iron ore consumption
- Egypt & Algeria DRI production
- Iron ore price forecasts (nominal)
- Price forecast revision
- Iron ore price forecast (a long-term perspective)
- China hot metal and iron ore dynamics
- China BOF and EAF production
- China long term iron ore supply dynamics
- Asia (ex-China): key demand forecast data
- India crude steel production (Mt)
- Indian crude steel capacity
- India metallics mix (Mt)
- India iron ore consumption mix (Mt)
- Iron ore production and exports by major country
- Iron ore exports by key company
- China domestic iron ore mining output
- Contestable Private production at different price levels (Wet tonnes)
- Indian iron ore production (Mt)
- Indian iron ore trade (Mt)
What's included
This report contains:
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