Global lead long-term outlook Q2 2019

Our previous forecast of weakening prices through to 2024 has become even more justifiable. We have cut a net 1.4Mt from global lead consumption for the period 2018 to 2023 compared to our Q1 forecast, with much of this concentrated in Asia. Global refined supply is still forecast to increase over the same period, with this underpinned by a recovery in concentrate supply to in excess of its 2014 peak. Concentrate market tightness should actually persist through 2019-2020 before a surplus emerges, but a refined lead surplus will still establish itself with a vengeance from 2020. Refined stocks in days of consumption will rise more rapidly than we outlined three months ago. We therefore forecast prices falling more decisively, and have also lowered our long-term price to reflect a weaker long-term outlook for consumption.