Commodity Market Report

Global lead long-term outlook Q2 2019

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24 June 2019

Global lead long-term outlook Q2 2019

Report summary

Our previous forecast of weakening prices through to 2024 has become even more justifiable. We have cut a net 1.4Mt from global lead consumption for the period 2018 to 2023 compared to our Q1 forecast, with much of this concentrated in Asia. Global refined supply is still forecast to increase over the same period, with this underpinned by a recovery in concentrate supply to in excess of its 2014 peak. Concentrate market tightness should actually persist through 2019-2020 before a surplus emerges, but a refined lead surplus will still establish itself with a vengeance from 2020. Refined stocks in days of consumption will rise more rapidly than we outlined three months ago. We therefore forecast prices falling more decisively, and have also lowered our long-term price to reflect a weaker long-term outlook for consumption.

Table of contents

  • Key points
  • Demand – what's changed?
  • Supply - what's changed?

Tables and charts

No table or charts specified

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Lead_Tables_LTO_Q2_2019.pdf

    PDF 1.52 MB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices lead LTO Q2 2019.xls

    XLS 418.00 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis lead LTO Q2 2019.xls

    XLS 629.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand main changes lead LTO Q2 2019.xls

    XLS 146.00 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes lead LTO Q2 2019.xls

    XLS 393.50 KB

  • Document

    Production rankings lead LTO Q2 2019.xls

    XLS 73.00 KB

  • Document

    Equity Production lead LTO Q2 2019.xls

    XLS 6.02 MB

  • Document

    Mine analysis lead LTO Q2 2019.xls

    XLS 2.87 MB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis lead LTO Q2 2019.xls

    XLS 1.29 MB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis lead LTO Q2 2019.xls

    XLS 1.27 MB

  • Document

    Global lead long-term outlook Q2 2019

    ZIP 6.18 MB

  • Document

    Global lead long-term outlook Q2 2019

    ZIP 4.74 MB

  • Document

    slide_pack_lead_lto_q2_2019.pdf

    PDF 1.57 MB

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