Global lead short-term outlook August 2024 Report

Commodity Market Report 30 August 2024

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Report summary

Elevated SHFE prices relative to the LME in earlier months encouraged refined metal imports which flooded the Chinese market, depressing physical market and prices in July and August. Combined with low treatment charges and rising scrap premiums, this has prompted smelter production cuts in China. The narrowing SHFE-LME price arbitrage should however, soon begin to curb Chinese refined metal imports. Conversely, Asian LME stocks fell by more than 20% in August supporting the LME price. The indicative China spot TC for low silver qualities moved negative this month, although it has been highly volatile due to the movements in the SHFE-LME price arbitrage - flared out early in the month resulting in large negative TCs before shrinking later in the month which saw only small negative or positive TCs.