Global rare earths short-term outlook April 2024

Downstream demand from rare earth metal, alloy and magnet manufacturers in China remains comparatively weak, but has shown signs of recovery in April. Short-term stimulus could be maintained by the upcoming holiday period in China; however, we don’t expect a significant improvement until H2 2024. Prices for key magnet rare earths increased between 6.1% and 13.8% month-on-month in April, albeit from a low base. Global supply continues to develop in order to keep pace with rising demand from magnet applications. Wood Mackenzie forecasts global mined supply will reach 377.3 kt REO in 2024, 11.9% higher than 2023. Growth will be driven by expansions at existing operations in China and the development of new supply outside of China. Global refined supply is set to rise at a CAGR of 6.3% to 2028, reaching 304.4 kt REO. However, inflationary pressures and other developmental challenges could delay project development.