Global rare earths short-term outlook July 2024

The market for rare earth magnets remains sluggish throughout the summer doldrums, with no indication of an imminent recovery. Yet, as evidenced by the stable RE concentrates costs in CNRE’s transaction agreement with Baogang United Steel for the second and third quarters, the underlying RE feedstock costs are holding firm. The stability of raw feedstock costs buffers against further price declines in the market. Without a surge in fundamental demand, the potential for further price increases is limited, while this will likely change if major rare earth groups enter the market to restock. Neodymium is expected to remain in surplus in 2024, then gradually transition to a period of market tightness by 2026, which will support higher price levels. Dysprosium demand is projected to exceed supply in 2025 and remain in deficit in 2026, offering short-term price support. We anticipate a market improvement by Q4, driven by increased purchasing activity and an improved economy.